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Japanese data on Wednesday showed services activity grew at its fastest pace in more than nine years in March - though factory output remains weak.Ĭhina's sprawling manufacturing sector lost momentum in March, data showed earlier in the week, though investment inflows hit a record for the first quarter on foreigners' optimism that policy support for business lies ahead.Ĭommodity markets are settling after Monday's surge in oil prices on news of surprise OPEC+ production cuts. The kiwi was last up 0.7 per cent at $0.6355.Ĭhina and Asia more broadly are the great hopes for growth. The euro stood by a two-month high hit overnight on the dollar at $1.0973. Read | Biden downplays OPEC+ oil output cutĮlsewhere investors see a few more rate hikes in store in Europe, where German exports have turned surprisingly strong. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised traders with a 50 basis point hike on Wednesday that sent the kiwi up 1 per cent at one stage to hit a two-month high - a contrast with Australia's central bank, which paused its hikes on Tuesday. A Reuters poll of FX strategists found most expect that to keep pressure on the dollar this year. Outside the United States, markets see other central banks staying the course on hikes to tame inflation. "We do not think this is something that is going to change in market pricing anytime soon." "Perhaps the Fed sneaks one more (hike) in, but the distribution of probabilities around the policy rate are heavily skewed to the downside," said NatWest Markets head of economics and market strategy, John Briggs. Gold, which pays no yield, hit a one-year high above $2,000 an ounce overnight. Two-year yields are at 3.8459 per cent and 10-year yields at 3.3517 per cent, with the whole US yield curve below top of the Fed funds rate window, which is at 5 per cent.
The latest futures pricing implies a better-than-even chance that the Federal Reserve has finished raising rates, and more than 60 bps in cuts this year. US interest rate futures have rallied strongly over the last few weeks, as traders figure that under pressure banks will tighten up on lending anyway and save the need for monetary policymakers to do the job. "And even when it is behind us, there will be repercussions from it for years to come." "The current crisis is not yet over," he said. "The market's odds of a recession have increased," said Jamie Dimon, chief executive of the United States' biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co, in a letter to shareholders, warning the confidence fears that have rattled banks have not dissipated. Two-year treasury yields, which closely track short-term rate expectations, dived almost 15 basis points and the dollar tracked the move to hit two-month troughs.
Read | Manufacturing output growth at 3-month high no increase in jobs Overnight a four-day winning streak for Wall Street indexes ended, with all three major indexes dropping, and interest rate expectations were dialled down after data showed US job openings hit their lowest level in nearly two years in February. Stocks struggled to make headway on Wednesday, the dollar nursed losses and bonds clung to gains, as signs of a slowing US labour market made investors nervous about the economic outlook, while a bigger-than-expected rate hike lifted the kiwi dollar.Īsia trade was thinned by holidays in Hong Kong and China, leaving MSCI's Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan faring little better than flat, while Japan's Nikkei fell 1 per cent.
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